Ascendant China Cited by U.S. Panel as Pentagon Pivots to Asia

China’s advancing military capabilities will challenge the U.S.’s ability to deter conflicts, defend partners and maintain freedom of the seas and airways in the Asia-Pacific region, according to a commission mandated by Congress.

“While the United States currently has the world’s most capable navy, its surface firepower is concentrated in aircraft carrier task forces,” the U.S. Economic and Security Review Commission said in its annual report. “China is pursuing a missile-centric strategy with the purpose of holding U.S. aircraft carriers at high risk if they operate in China’s near seas and thereby hinder their access to those waters in the event of a crisis.”

“Given China’s growing navy and the U.S. Navy’s planned decline in the size of its fleet, the balance of power and presence in the region is shifting in China’s direction,” the panel found. That will give China an “increasing number of opportunities to provoke incidents at sea and in the air that could lead to a crisis or conflict.”

Chinese nationalism, increasing regional assertiveness and the “relatively nascent state” of U.S.-Sino channels for defusing a crisis means “the potential for security miscalculations in the region is rising,” the commission said.

Last week in Beijing, U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to increase cooperation and communication between their armed forces to reduce the risk of a mistake that might cause local disputes to mushroom into a military conflict. Xi said military-to-military relations will be bolstered by the “confidence-building” measures.

Addressing Australia’s Parliament in Canberra this week, Xi said, “Neither turbulence nor war serves the fundamental interests of the Chinese people.”

‘Pressing Need’

China’s military modernization is out of necessity to secure its territory, Defense Minister Chang Wanquan said today in a speech in Beijing.

The size of the country’s territory “places the Chinese military under heavy pressure in securing the country and its border areas,” Chang said, according to China Military Online, a website sponsored by the People’s Liberation Army Daily. “There is therefore a pressing need for China to strengthen its national defense and armed forces. It should also be noted that to defend our own security is a most direct contribution to the security and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.”

Created by Congress in 2000, the bipartisan commission has reported on China’s economic and military rise, usually in critical assessments accompanied by recommendations for counter-actions such as trade sanctions. Its annual overview and a yearly Pentagon report are the two primary publicly available official U.S. assessments of Chinese military developments.