MANILA, Philippines —
More than 70 analysts from various countries held debates in a bid to simulate
the future of the disputed South China Sea.
In a statement earlier
this week, consultancy firm Wikistrat examined "key factors" driving
instability in the waters claimed by China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia
and Taiwan to come up with "master narratives" or possible scenarios
that may affect the region's future.
The factors identified
are the increase and interaction of nationalistic sentiment among rival
claimants, the course of international diplomacy and ability of negotiators,
the desire to control offshore resources and the ongoing buildup of military
assets seen in growing defense budgets.
"Examining these
four factors, analysts predicted four scenarios for stability and instability
in the contested waters," the agency said.
An in-charge Beijing
The first scenario
analysts "envisioned" was a more assertive and inward-looking China
that causes armed conflict, with the United States stepping back from its
proclaimed Asia-Pacific foreign policy rebalance.
Emerging states, which
includes the Philippines, may form a coalition "to contain China on their
own."
Still, analysts believe ASEAN coalitions will not prevent China
from expanding influence as they have a "limited capability to defend
themselves" and "spiraling nationalism."
Great
powers step back
In this scenario, the US and China both step back, avoiding an
armed conflict, and cease to influence littoral states.
Tensions, however, will still remain as maritime rivalries persist
due to nationalism and adamant claims to sovereignty.
A US
versus China contest
The two superpowers hold a contest over who is going to control
regional dynamics in the third scenario. Wikistrat says this situation leads to
the "highest prospect for conflict."
"Rising nationalism, an arms buildup in the region, and a mad
scramble for natural resources in the disputed waters is expected under this
scenario to further draw in Washington and evoke a reciprocal response from
Beijing," the agency said.
Best-case
scenario
The final possible situation in the region is described as the
"best-case" narrative, with China staying true to its rhetoric of
peace while the US plays an enduring role in establishing regional order.
China holds back forceful activities in the seas as it prioritizes
domestic issues.
Wikistrat also describes this scenario as having maritime
resources pursued by all parties without conflict.
In simulating future situations, analysts urge governments to tone
down growing nationalism and practice "soft power" to achieve their
security goals.
Beijing, meanwhile, has to assure its neighbors of its commitment
to peace by pursuing diplomatic means without military might.
"The arms buildup in the region may cause problems for all
players," Wikistrat added.
Source: http://www.philstar.com/
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