A new report on
China's military and economic activities says that the country is secretly
growing its nuclear arsenal and that the US government is understating that
growth.
"Estimates of
China's nuclear forces and nuclear capabilities by nongovernmental experts and
foreign governments tend to be higher" than US estimates, the report by
the US China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) said.
The USCC, which was
established by Congress in 2000, publishes an annual report for the
legislature.
Whilst China has not
disclosed data on its nuclear forces, experts say their arsenal is clearly
growing.
"China's
official pronouncements about its nuclear policies and strategies are short,
rare, and vague," the report said.
However, "despite the uncertainty
surrounding China's stockpiles of nuclear missiles and nuclear warheads, it is
clear China's nuclear forces over the next three to five years will expand
considerably and become more lethal and survivable with the fielding of
additional road-mobile nuclear missiles; as many as five Jin-class SSBNs, each
of which can carry 12 JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missiles; and
intercontinental ballistic missiles armed with multiple independently
targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs)."
The JL-2's range of
approximately 4,598 miles "gives China the ability to conduct nuclear
strikes against Alaska if launched from waters near China; against Alaska and
Hawaii if launched from waters south of Japan; against Alaska, Hawaii, and the
western portion of the continental United States if launched from waters west
of Hawaii; and against all 50 US states if launched from waters east of
Hawaii," the report warned.
The report added that
China's nuclear arsenal is likely to grow and modernize in the next 3-5 years,
so much so that the efforts "will [weaken] US extended deterrence,
particularly with respect to Japan."
In addition to SLBMs,
Beijing is fielding new road-mobile nuclear missiles. China has already
deployed DF-31 ICBM and more advanced DF-31A ICBM. "The DF-31A has a
maximum range of at least 6,959 miles, allowing it to target most of the
continental United States," the report said. A new road-mobile ICBM, the
DF-41, is now being tested, according to the authors.
The new missile, which
could be ready as early as 2015, could have a range of 7,456 miles, putting the
entire US at risk. It can also carry 10 MIRVs, which could "[overwhelm] US
ballistic missile defenses," according to the report China's space-related
capabilities are also growing. Beijing will be be able to attack US satellites
both kinetically and electronically. "In space, China in 2014 continued to
pursue a broad counter-space programme to challenge US information superiority
in a conflict and disrupt or destroy US satellites if necessary," the
report stated.
"China continues
to expand and improve its ability to launch civil, military, and commercial
satellites, despite enduring technological deficiencies in China's industrial
base. China conducted 52 known space launches from 2011-2013, only three less
than the United States during this period," the report added. "China
likely will expand its space-based C4ISR architecture with the launch of
approximately 35-50 additional satellites through 2015. This growth will be
facilitated by planned improvements to China's ground-based space
infrastructure and launch vehicles."
The US China Economic
and Security Review Commission reports provide a valuable snapshot of Western
open-source thinking on Chinese military capability and security policy, writes
James Hardy . Other sections of the report provide insight into Beijing's North
Korea policy, its South China Sea and global foreign policy objectives.
The report is
scathing on the last point, noting that "China's effort to project an
image of itself 'playing the role of a responsible, big country'' is at odds
with its increased aggressiveness toward its neighbors and willingness to flout
international laws and norms. Further, its commitment to 'playing the role of a
responsible, big country' only seems to be a salient feature of China's foreign
policy when 'being responsible' is in Beijing's own narrow national
interests."
The report also notes
a number of firsts for Chinese forces in 2014, such as its "combat
readiness patrols" by nuclear-powered attack submarines in the Indian
Ocean and large-scale drills in the Western Pacific that, in the words of one
PLA senior colonel, "cut through the so-called 'first island chain'."
The commission's
conclusion on the military balance of power between China and Taiwan is more
nuanced than might be expected, noting the assessment of Ian Easton, a research
fellow at the Project 2049 Institute, who told the commission that there has
not been ''a fundamental shift in the cross-strait military balance. Rather,
the situation remains fluid and dynamic" due to PLA uncertainty over its
ability to achieve air superiority over the island.
The report, however,
notes that "Taiwan has not acquired a modern combat aircraft or naval
combatant since the mid-2000s" and that "China's vast arsenal of
short-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles would provide it with a
crucial advantage in a conflict with Taiwan."
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